Writing Room
The Great Indian Budget ‘Tamasha’ II
“Tamasha” is a Hindi word that can mean either a “grand show” or alternatively a “fuss” or a “commotion”.
Every year, on February 1st, the central government presents the Union Budget. It is just an account of the receipts and expenditure for the current year and the Budget for next year. Ceremoniously, market participants and the business world line up a plethora of sops and incentives that they desire from the Finance Minister. This year expectations centred on “fiscal compromise” (i.e. a higher fiscal deficit), either through measures to reignite demand (personal tax cuts) or higher spending.
Evolution; Perfect storm (in a teacup); fragility and Goldilocks
2019 was an eventful year for India which included a national election, a liquidity crunch, a botched budget, the biggest tax reform in a generation, and an equity market characterised by divergence and volatility. It has been a testing period for many investors, Ocean Dial included, and whilst the view point that the dust has started to settle is up for debate, it is timely to have a discussion on how our research approach has evolved over this period and our broader outlook for the coming years.
ICGF Portfolio Commentary
This has been a tough period for Indian equity markets, particularly in the small and mid cap space where the India Capital Growth Fund operates. The Indian equity market experienced its worst July in seventeen years. The BSE Mid Cap Index fell 7.6% in Rupee terms leaving the Index down 11.0% for this calendar year and the Fund’s NAV has commensurately fallen by 12.4%1. With August offering no respite it is timely to have an examination of the key drivers behind where we are and how we are positioning ourselves going forwards.